河北省2021年第三季度马铃薯市场形势分析及后市预测
Analysis of Potato Market Situation in the Third Quarter of 2021 and Future Forecast in Hebei Province
  
DOI:
中文关键词:  第三季度  马铃薯  价格分析  价格预测
英文关键词:Keywords: the third quarter  potato  price analysis  price forecasting
基金项目:河北省现代农业产业技术体系薯类创新团队项目(HBCT2018080301)。
作者单位
魏子珍1,赵铭月1,毛娅楠2,李 洁3,王 哲1 1.河北农业大学经济管理学院河北 保定 0710002. 河北省农业科技发展中心河北 石家庄 0500003. 河北省农业农村厅人事处河北 石家庄 050000 
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中文摘要:
      依据全国农产品批发市场价格信息系统对马铃薯的实时监控数据,以河北省2021年第三季度马铃薯价格为研究对象,对其进行横向、纵向比较,并分析影响马铃薯价格的因素。结果显示:河北省2021年第三季度马铃薯日均价格波动较大,季均价格明显低于前2年的同期水平;河北省第三季度均价与山东、甘肃主产区及全国平均水平存在一定的差距,环比、同比均为负增长,且下降幅度最大。分析表明,供需矛盾和降雨天气频繁是影响第三季度马铃薯价格变化的主要因素。最后,对2022年河北省马铃薯价格走势作出了预测。
英文摘要:
      Abstract: According to the real-time monitoring data of potato from the price information system of the national agricultural products wholesale market, taking the price of potato in the third quarter of 2021 in Hebei province as the research object, the price of potato in the third quarter of 2021 of Hebei province was compared horizontally and vertically, and the influencing factors of potato price were analyzed. The results showed that the average daily price of potato in Hebei province fluctuated greatly in the third quarter of 2021, and the average quarterly price was significantly lower than that in the same period of the previous two years. There was a certain gap between the average price of Hebei province in the third quarter and the main production areas of Shandong and Gansu and the national average level, and the month-on-month and year-on-year growth were negative with the largest decline. The analysis results showed that the contradiction between supply and demand and frequent rainfall weather were the main factors affecting the price change of potato in the third quarter. Finally, the price trend of potato in Hebei province in the fourth quarter of 2022 was forecasted.
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